The public in Nepal favours a republic. That was one of the key findings in a national State of Democracy 2007 survey in Nepal conducted in April this year by the national team of the South Asia Democracy Study Group and International IDEA. Public opinion has shifted decisively since the first round of the survey conducted in 2004, with an increase from 15 to 59 per cent of respondents choosing a republic over the current monarchy.

Significantly, an overwhelming number of respondents (91 per cent) also agreed that special provisions need to be made for the excluded groups, such as women and people belonging to Janjati, Madhesh and Dalit, in the new constitution.

In November 2006, the seven party alliance and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) signed an historic peace agreement, ending a decade long armed insurgency in Nepal. Following a popular uprising in April last year, King Gyanendra was forced to end his direct rule and restore the parliament. The November 2006 peace agreement specifically includes provision for the election of a Constituent Assembly (CA). The CA will decide the future of the monarchy and political system. The date for the elections was first set for June but has been postponed to November - December 2007.

Survey field work in Jumla, Nepal
Photo: Leena Rikkilä, International IDEA

Another key finding of the survey is that the majority of Nepali voters don’t understand the meaning of the term “Constituent Assembly” – 59 per cent of the respondents said ‘I don’t know’ when asked what a CA is. People think, however, that it is possible to hold the CA elections fairly – 62 per cent of the respondents were confident that it is possible to hold peaceful and fair elections – and they put their trust in the international community to ensure this. Around 82 per cent of the respondents said that the international community plays a significant role in the process of democratic transition in Nepal, with India at the top of the list of countries likely to play an important role.

The survey also indicates that political awareness and participation are rising and that democracy in Nepal is expanding and deepening. 67 per cent of the respondents said that ‘democracy is preferable to any kind of government’ and 92 per cent said ‘democracy is suitable to Nepal’.

“This survey shows that people have put their faith in the peace and democratization process and are expecting elections for an inclusive Constituent Assembly to take place - as promised by the political parties”, says Leena Rikkilä, International IDEA’s Programme Manager for Nepal.

Other key findings of the survey include:

• People trust the CPN (Maoist) Party to be serious about transformation – and trust in other parties is even higher.
• 52 per cent of the electorate is yet to decide who to vote for in the CA elections.
• Assertion of ethnic and regional identity is rising – but not at the expense of national unity.
• Pahadi (hill origin) and Madhesi (plain/Terrai origin) are divided on the agenda of ‘state restructuring’.
• Civic education and economic development are the key challenges of transition.

Survey field work in Jumla, Nepal
Photo: Leena Rikkilä, International IDEA

The survey is part of International IDEA’s project Support for Constitution Building in Nepal and was conducted in 162 polling stations of 23 urban and 139 rural areas.

The report on the 2007 survey will be published later this Autumn. It will also include results from additional samplings, including the Madhesis and Gurungs (two important ethnic groups), displaced people and Sukumbasis (landless, homeless), as well as comparisons with the 2004 survey conducted by International IDEA.

The citizens’ survey is followed by an Elite survey, which results will be available by August 2007.