By Daniel Zovatto, International IDEA’s Regional Director for Latin America, based in Costa Rica
Costa Rica will have its first female President Laura Chinchilla Miranda, from the ruling party Liberación Nacional (PLN), previously the First Vice-President of the government of Oscar Arias. She was elected on 7 February 2010 in exemplary and peaceful elections. Unlike the 2006 elections in which Oscar Arias defeated Ottón Solís from Acción Ciudadana Party (PAC) by barely 18,000 votes, Chinchilla won the elections with a comfortable 46%: a significant margin over Solís who obtained 25% and Otto Guevara from Movimiento Libertario (ML) who obtained 21% of the votes.
As in 13 other Latin American countries, Costa Rica offers the possibility of a runoff. However, the percentage set to claim victory in the first round is 40% of valid cast ballots. Chinchilla obtained an overwhelming national victory since she emerged triumphant in all of the seven provinces of this peace and democracy loving country which has been ranked in several indices as “the happiest country in the world”.
Chinchilla’s victory differs from the outcome of the last three elections which were held in Central America in 2009 in which the opposing parties won the elections: Martinelli in Panama (right), Funes in El Salvador (left) and Lobo in Honduras (right).
The overwhelming victory at the Executive level was not replicated to the same degree in the legislature due to the high percentage of ballot splitting. Preliminary data from the Supreme Tribunal of Elections indicates that PLN will not obtain a majority in Congress. Out of 57, PLN (ruling party) will have around 23-24, PAC (Solís) will have 10-11, Movimiento Libertario (Otto Guevara) will have 9-10 and PUSC will have 6. The other seats will be distributed among minor parties.
Thus, the old bipartisan system, which had been showing evidence of attrition, finally disappeared in this election to give way to three main parties, which account for 93% of the valid cast ballots in the presidential election and over 75% for congressional seats. This increased fragmentation of the party system and the absence of a majority in Congress will force Chinchilla to look for alliances and agreements to allow her to govern. Her ability to foster dialogue and create consensus will be crucial. The President-elect is acutely aware of this fact and, in her first speech, called the opposing parties to be open to dialogue and agreements.
Chinchilla will face, as of May 8th, a difficult challenge ahead: to restore growth and generate employment, which were areas affected by the global financial crisis; to deepen the social profile of Costa Rica by reducing poverty and inequality and by investing more in health and education but mainly by directly attacking citizen insecurity, which has become the main cause for the increase in drug trafficking and organized crime in this country with no army.
Everything indicates that during her term the new President will attempt to combine the continuity of certain policies of the current Arias administration (particularly economic) with new initiatives that carry her own personal mark. “It is up to me to justify the confidence by means of a government of independence which is committed to the country’s welfare” she noted in her acceptance speech.
Discuss
Tell a friend
